WSJ MarketWatch: The Next 7 Days In Iran Will Determine If We Face Stagflation Or A Total Global Recession March 11, 2026 Iran has an interest in prolonging the economic and political pain to convince Trump to retreat. It does not have an interest in getting bombed into the Stone Age. America's "goldilocks" economy is over. The next seven days of the Iran conflict will set the stage for stagflation or global recession. Since the U.S.-China trade truce in Geneva last May, the U.S. unemployment rate stabilized at 4.4%. Inflation fell to 2.4%, albeit higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Yet economic policy-makers are neither omniscient nor omnipotent. The economy eventually cools down or heats up too much. In January and February, several signs pointed to slowing growth. Now let's add a military conflict in the vital chokepoint of the global economy — the Strait of Hormuz. If the U.S. and Iran could agree to cease-fire, energy flows would resume — at least partially. Households and companies would still face somewhat higher commodity prices trickling down to food and essentials. But they would avoid a sustained period of oil prices above $100 a barrel. That number translates to $4 a gallon at the gas pump — a price that weighed on the economy and approval ratings of Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Gasoline prices at that level prompt the White House to change behavior. Historically, a doubling of the oil price coincides with a global recession. In today's terms, that is $120-$140 a barrel. Brent crude brushed the bottom of that range earlier this week. That led President Donald Trump to declare the war in Iran "very complete, pretty much." He hopes to conclude military operations rapidly, of course, to avoid higher oil prices ahead of November's midterm elections. Whether the economy proves stagflationary or recessionary will depend on the intensity and duration of the oil price surge.. ** Information contained within this email should not be construed as Legal, Accounting, Tax or Investment advice. Patriot Gold Group is a Gold & Silver Dealer, representatives are NOT Licensed Financial Planners and do NOT give investing or tax advice. | 
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