Signals & Shifts: Markets, Moonshots, and a Governor's Race
| | Quantus Thursday Brief // September 2025 Edition | 1. ISM Services Surprise: Demand Up, Jobs Down | Headline: 52.0 (vs 51.0 exp, 50.1 prior) – Services sector expanding faster than expected. New Orders: 56.0 (vs 51.1 exp) – Forward demand is strong. Prices Paid: 69.2 (vs 69.5 exp) – Still hot; inflation pressure remains. Employment: 46.5 (vs 46.7 exp) – Contraction zone.
| Takeaway: The services sector is showing resilience, with solid demand but weak hiring. Price pressures persist.
Net signal: Modestly inflationary, growth-positive. | | 2. Labor Market: Cracks Forming | Initial Claims: 237K (vs 230K) – Highest since June. Continuing Claims: 1.94M (vs 1.96M) – Still elevated. ADP Jobs: 54K (vs 68K, down from 106K) – Hiring slowdown. Job Cuts: 85,979 in August – Most since 2020.
| Wage Trends: Job changers still seeing gains; wages for stayers are slowing signaling less sticky wage inflation. | Takeaway: The labor market isn't collapsing, but it's softening. Less hiring, more turnover, slower wage growth.
Net signal: Cooling labor = easing inflation. | Be sure to follow us on X for more analysis and election coverage @QuantusInsights (https://x.com/QuantusInsights) | | 3. Productivity and Costs
Nonfarm Productivity: +3.3% (vs 2.7%) – A growth win. | | Takeaway: Productivity is offsetting labor costs. Growth stays intact while inflation gets a breather.
Net signal: Disinflationary tailwind. | Fed Outlook: On Pause, Eyes on Services Inflation | Services rebounding, but employment still soft. Labor market cooling without breaking. Inflation signals mixed — services sticky, wages easing.
| Bottom Line: The Fed stays on hold. Disinflation trend intact, but services inflation remains a watch point. | | 4. USA TO THE MOON (FOR REAL) | NASA Administrator Sean Duffy says a 4-person U.S. crew will land on the moon early next year. | Next steps: | Stay on the surface for 8–12 days. Begin building Moon Base Camp. Target: Manned Mars mission in the 2030s.
| Duffy: "We know China wants to get there before us — we're not gonna let it happen." | | 5. NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR POLL PREVIEW | We're polling the NJ Governor's race. Full results are planned to drop on Friday, Sept 5. But here's the latest snapshot from TIPP (A-rated): 8/25 - 8/28/25 | All Voters
🟦 Sherril: 37% [+1]
🟥 Ciattarelli: 36% | Regular Voters
🟦 Sherril: 47% [+4]
🟥 Ciattarelli: 43%
⬜️ Unsure: 9% | Likely Voters
🟦 Sherril: 46% [+7]
🟥 Ciattarelli: 39%
⬜️ Unsure: 12% | Race is tight. Momentum edge: Sherril | | Want More Like This?
Subscribe to Quantus Insights for sharp, unfiltered analysis for free or paid members. Paid members get early access to polling results, inside data, and exclusive content on our Substack publication. | | |
|
| | | | | Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2025 Quantus Insights 228 Park Ave S, #29976, New York, New York 10003, United States | | | Terms of Service |
|
|
|
|
|
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar