Paxton holds the advantage in a settled electorate where few voters appear left to move.
The shape of this runoff is now plain. Ken Paxton leads John Cornyn 48.8% to 41.3%, with just 9.9% undecided. In most campaigns, that would leave room for a late break. Here, it leaves less than it seems, because this is not a loose electorate. It is a settled one. Fully 88.1% say they are certain to vote, and 78.7% say their choice is definite. That is the central fact of the race. The contest is still live, but the pool of movable voters is limited. (See results and cross tabs at our interactive site here).
What gives Paxton his edge is not merely ballot support, but underlying strength. Voters rate him as more effective than Cornyn by 51.3% to 38.9%. They also view him more favorably overall. Paxton posts a 55.9% favorable rating against 37.5% unfavorable, while Cornyn stands at 42.6% favorable and 51.7% unfavorable. Most importantly, supporters for Wesley Hunt now back Paxton by 58%. In a runoff, the candidate with the stronger intensity profile usually holds the firmer ground. | Cornyn's remaining path is visible, but narrow. He still performs better with seniors, leading among voters 65 and older by 46.4% to 43.6%, and he also ran ahead in the March primary among that same age bloc. He remains competitive in urban areas as well. But Paxton's advantage with voters under 65 is larger and broader. He leads among voters aged 45 to 64 by 54.9% to 36.1%, among suburban voters by 51.1% to 39.1%, and among town voters by 54.4% to 33.2%. That suggests the race is not being decided by one faction alone, but by a broader revolt against the established order of the field.
The final lesson is that endorsements appear weaker than strategists often believe. A Trump endorsement for Paxton would make no difference to 63.0% of respondents; for Cornyn, 70.0% say the same. Only 25.3% say they would be more likely to support Paxton with such an endorsement, and only 18.3% say the same for Cornyn. In other words, this electorate has largely made up its mind. The race will turn less on spectacle than on consolidation. And at this hour, the candidate holding the stronger coalition, the better favorability, and the clearer perception of effectiveness is Paxton. | Want More Like This?
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