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Quantus Wednesday Brief // February 2026 Edition |
Executive Overview |
Virginia's firearms debate is often framed as a clash between public safety and constitutional liberty. But the electorate is not arguing in slogans. It is drawing a distinction between criminals and the law-abiding and insisting that policy begin with consequences for offenders rather than new burdens on compliant citizens. |
Our statewide survey finds a public that is politically frustrated but not personally fearful. Voters broadly affirm Second Amendment rights, prefer enforcement over expansion of restrictions, and signal clear electoral consequences for lawmakers who push too far. |
The center of gravity is not "do nothing." It is "enforce what exists." |
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1. The Political Climate: Dissatisfaction Without Panic |
The broader political environment in Virginia is sour. |
Nearly two-thirds disapprove of Governor Spanberger's performance (64.4% disapprove). The split is sharp: |
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Men express stronger intensity of opposition (69.4% disapprove) than women (60.0%). |
Yet that dissatisfaction has not translated into widespread personal insecurity. |
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By party: |
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The electorate is politically unsettled but not living in fear. That distinction shapes every policy response that follows. |
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2. The Constitutional Baseline |
On the Second Amendment as an individual right, consensus is broad and durable. |
"The Second Amendment protects an individual right to own a firearm" |
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This is not a narrow majority. It is a foundational position across party lines. |
Support narrows but remains significant when the issue shifts to carry rights outside the home: |
Right to carry for self-defense |
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Ownership is broadly settled. Carry rights are more contested, particularly among Democrats and Democratic women. |
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3. Who Is Responsible? |
The most decisive finding in the survey concerns responsibility for gun violence. |
"The criminal" is responsible: |
Republicans: 95.7% Independents: 94.1% Democrats: 82.3% Men: 91.1% Women: 89.5%
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When asked which poses the greater threat: |
"Criminals are a greater threat than firearms themselves" |
Republicans: 91.8% Independents: 90.1% Democrats: 52.7% Men: 82.3% Women: 71.9%
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Democrats and women are more likely to view firearms as inherently dangerous, but the statewide majority locates responsibility with the offender, not the object. |
This framing drives the policy preferences that follow. |
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4. Enforcement vs. Expansion |
When asked what would reduce crime most effectively, enforcement overwhelms regulation. |
Top selections: |
Tougher sentencing: Republicans 46.9%, Independents 48.9%, Democrats 21.8% Prosecution of existing laws: Republicans 33.1%, Independents 24.6%, Democrats 17.9% More firearm regulations: Democrats 33.3%, Independents 7.3%, Republicans 5.0%
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Men favor sentencing and prosecution more heavily. Women are somewhat more receptive to new laws, but enforcement still leads overall. |
The electorate's instinct is clear: the perceived failure is not insufficient law, but insufficient consequence. |
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5. Where the Coalition Breaks |
Large-scale restrictions face structural resistance outside the Democratic base. |
"Assault weapon" ban |
Republicans: 78.5% oppose Independents: 73.4% oppose Democrats: 59.5% support Men: 71.0% oppose Women: 50.4% oppose (more divided)
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Magazine limits |
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Gender differences matter — women are more persuadable but statewide opposition remains structurally strong. |
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6. The Swing Terrain: Age Limits & Waiting Periods |
The electorate is most divided on procedural friction. |
Raising purchase age to 21 |
Republicans: 66.6% oppose Independents: 57.5% oppose Democrats: 60.0% support Women: nearly evenly split
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Waiting periods |
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Waiting periods represent the closest issue to middle ground but only among women and Democratic voters. Among men and non-Democrats, opposition is firm. |
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7. Taxes, Suppressors & Liability |
Policies perceived as targeting lawful owners generate resistance. |
Firearm/ammunition tax |
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Suppressor restrictions |
Republicans: 75.4% oppose Independents: 70.3% oppose Democrats: divided Women show higher uncertainty
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On manufacturer liability: |
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Opposition to allowing lawsuits tied to criminal misuse dominates outside the Democratic base. |
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8. Electoral Consequence |
When voters consider legislators who support new firearm restrictions: |
Net less likely to re-elect |
Republicans: 87.2% Independents: 80.1% Men: 75.9% Women: 56.8%
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Similar patterns emerge on liability expansion. |
This is not marginal backlash. It is a broad warning, especially among the persuadable center.
Final Assessment |
Virginia voters are not demanding radical retrenchment or radical expansion. They want governance rooted in consequence. |
The Second Amendment is widely treated as an individual right. Responsibility for violence rests overwhelmingly with criminals. Enforcement and sentencing are preferred to expanding restrictions. Large bans and taxes face structural opposition among Independents and Republicans — and among men across parties. Lawmakers who overreach face measurable electoral risk.
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In Virginia, the debate is not "guns versus control."
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