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Quantus Friday Brief // August 2025 Edition |
1. U.S. Jobs Shock — A Cracking Labor Market |
July Jobs: +73K (vs. 115K expected) |
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Despite weak headline numbers, native-born employment hit a record 133.035M in July. The highest on record. But the native-born unemployment rate also rose from 4.4% to 4.7%, and the employment-population ratio hovered near 59%. |
Why the cracks? |
BLS cites late-arriving data Fed Chair Powell notes low response rates and high imputation Broader structural issues persist: aging workforce, slowing immigration, and a tightening labor supply
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Implications: |
The Fed's rate-cut hesitation may not hold Labor demand could be falling faster than inflation Market may be overestimating strength based on initial reports
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Bottom line: July's report doesn't just show softness, it retroactively undermines months of "growth" that never really happened dating back to last year. |
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2.Wages vs. Inflation |
Q2 GDP: +3.0% — beating forecasts. |
Consumer and government spending held steady Imports dropped, juicing the topline Exports dipped Business investment? Still sluggish
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ADP Report: +104,000 private sector jobs in July. Inflation's at target. Growth is lopsided.
The rate cut isn't just possible, it's overdue. |
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3. North Carolina Senate Race |
Emerson Poll (July 28–30 | 1,000 RV) |
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VictoryPolling (Same field dates) |
🔵 Cooper: 44% 🔴 Whatley: 44% ➖ Undecided: 12%
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Cooper begins with a name ID advantage (93% vs. Whatley's 58%), but that gap masks real vulnerability. Whatley is already even and has room to grow. With over 12% still undecided this race is far from locked. |
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4. Russia Hoax Revelations Burn Bags, Durham, and Declassification |
FBI "Burn Bag" Discovery |
Thousands of documents related to the Trump-Russia probe found in a secure FBI SCIF Recovered by FBI Director Kash Patel Included the classified 29-page Durham annex, meant for destruction Documents suggest the FBI had early intelligence warning of a Clinton-backed effort to tie Trump to Russia before launching Crossfire Hurricane
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Durham Annex Declassified |
Released July 31 by Sen. Chuck Grassley Contains 2016 intelligence reports indicating Clinton allies proposed using the Russia narrative to distract from the email server scandal References hacked think tank emails (e.g., Open Society Foundations) and a strategy to push the collusion story
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Investigations Underway |
Patel has opened criminal referrals into John Brennan and James Comey Declassification coordinated with CIA Director Tulsi Gabbard, DNI John Ratcliffe, and AG Pam Bondi Public calls for accountability growing, though former officials deny wrongdoing
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Congress is now reviewing the materials for further public release. Whether they result in prosecution or remain a political flashpoint is still to be seen but the narrative is gaining momentum. |
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5. What It All Means |
This week's data and disclosures point to a clear pattern: cracks are showing, economic and political, are widening. |
The Jobs Report |
What looked like stable growth is now massively overstated. Revisions slashed 258K jobs from recent months, and job creation has slowed to post-pandemic lows. The labor market isn't just soft it's structurally weakening. If the Fed and markets don't adjust fast, they risk fighting yesterday's war while missing today's slowdown. |
Inflation & Wages |
Wages still outpacing inflation is a bright spot for now. But if job growth keeps faltering, even that may lose steam. The balance between wage strength and employment weakness is fragile, and could snap. |
The NC Senate Race |
Democrats aren't getting the early margins they need. Despite Roy Cooper's near-universal name ID, he's either statistically tied or ahead but under 50% support against Michael Whatley a candidate 40% of voters barely know. |
Russia Narrative Back in Focus |
Newly discovered and declassified documents show a disturbing level of institutional manipulation during the 2016 election from the FBI ignoring red flags to Clinton campaign operatives reportedly orchestrating the Russia narrative for political cover. Criminal investigations are now underway. The political class may try to bury this, but the paper trail is alive and public. |
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