Quantus Friday Brief // July 2025 Edition

1. 2028 Presidential Election Poll (It's never too early)

Emerson | July 22, 2025
Vance holds a lead across all matchups.

🔴 Vance 45% (+3)
🔵 Newsom 42%
🔴 Vance 44% (+1)
🔵 Buttigieg 43%
🔴 Vance 44% (+3)
🔵 AOC 41%

2. NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL

Trump Approval: The base is holding, but the middle isn't moving. 🇺🇸

Trump Job Approval (–2.5 pts)

🟢 Approve: 47.4%
🔴 Disapprove: 49.9%
⚪️ Unsure: 2%
Trend: Underwater since April. Static through late July.

Trump Approval by Key Groups

18–29 Men: 57% approval (+17 net)
18–29 Women: 38% approval (–20 net)
White College: 46% approve / 53% disapprove (–7 net)
White Non-College: 53% approve / 44% disapprove (+9 net)
‼️ Black Men: 49% approve | Black voters overall: 39%
Independents: 38% approve / 58% disapprove (–20 net)
White Men: 56% approve

Party Breakdown

🔴 Republicans: 87% approve (White Republicans: 91%)
🔵 Democrats: 83% disapprove
⚪️ Independents: Net –20

Area Type Breakdown

Urban: 50% approve (+2 net)
— Urban men: 53% approve
Suburban: 45% approve / 52% disapprove
— Suburban men: 50/48
— Suburban women: 41/55
Rural: 49% approve / 48% disapprove
— Soft by Trump standards. Rural conservatives likely under-polled
— Rural White Men: 54% approve

Trump's coalition remains intact — white, male, working class — but his ceiling is real. Young men are shifting. Urban numbers are rising. But suburban women and independents remain a wall.

More in the full slides + crosstabs: [QuantusInsights.org]

3. Polling Average – Where Quantus Lands

Quantus (47.4/49.9) lands almost exactly on the RealClearPolling national average:
🟢 47.3% approve | 🔴 50.7% disapprove

(Chart: Registered & Likely Voter Polls — Quantus, Emerson, WSJ, etc.)

4. Trump on Obama & the Russia Hoax

"He has immunity, it probably helps him a lot. He OWES ME BIG. Obama owes me big.
But it DOESN'T help the people around him AT ALL."
— President Trump, July 24

Trump continues allegations that Obama was involved in orchestrating the Trump-Russia collusion narrative during the 2016 election, which Trump and his Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, have claimed was based on "manufactured" or "potentially biased" intelligence. Trump suggested that the Supreme Court's ruling, which grants immunity for a president's official acts, likely protects Obama from prosecution for these alleged actions, but not his associates.

5. Trump Floats Rebate Checks from Tariff Revenue

Per Axios, Trump is exploring the idea of refunding Americans with rebate checks funded by tariff collections.

The U.S. government collected over $100 billion in tariff revenue in the first half of 2025, with $27 billion in June alone, per Treasury data. These rebates aim to offset higher consumer prices caused by tariffs, which are effectively taxes on imported goods.

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