| | Quantus Thursday // July 2025 Edition | 1. Party ID Shift: GOP Now Leads National Affiliation
According to Pew Research: | | That's a net 11-point swing toward Republicans since 2021. | Why this matters: Party ID margin is a strong predictor of House national popular vote (NPV) outcomes. Historical correlation: r = 0.82 in midterms. | Examples: | 2022 (R+1 ID) → R+3 in House NPV 2010 & 2014 (D+2 to D+3 ID) → GOP still won big due to turnout/indies 2006 & 2018 (D+6 ID) → Dems won +8 to +9 NPV and flipped the House
| Takeaway: An R+1 environment this early suggests a GOP-leaning baseline for 2026 but outcome depends on turnout, candidate quality, and independents. | | | 2. Trump's Trade Blitz: Japan, Indonesia, and More | Japan Deal (July 22, 2025) | Tariffs: Japanese autos now face 15% U.S. tariff (down from 27.5%) Investment: Japan to invest $550B in U.S. industries (energy, semis, pharma) Market Access: More U.S. rice, cars, ag exports to Japan Impact: Nikkei +3.5%. Japanese auto stocks soared. U.S. automakers not thrilled.
| Indonesia Deal | Tariffs: Cut to 19% (was 32%), 40% on Chinese-linked goods Purchases: $3.2B in U.S. aircraft $4.5B in U.S. ag (soybeans, wheat) $15B in energy (LNG, crude)
Impact: Counters Chinese influence, builds on Philippines deal (same 19% structure)
| Other Frameworks | Philippines: 19% on imports, zero tariffs for U.S. goods Vietnam: 20% on imports, 40% on transshipped goods UK, EU, China: Talks ongoing (China deadline: August 12)
| Context: All follow Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs (April 2025), aiming to re-shore manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. Business groups warn of higher consumer prices. | | 3. 2026 NC Senate Race: Whatley vs. Cooper Likely | RNC Chair Michael Whatley is preparing to run for Senate in North Carolina, backed by President Trump. Lara Trump passed on the race. | Expected matchup: | 🟥 Michael Whatley (R) — RNC Chair, Trump ally, ex-NC GOP Chair 🟦 Roy Cooper (D) — Former Governor, expected to announce soon
| Battle lines: Trump won NC three cycles in a row, but Dems see the seat as flippable. Whatley brings a deep donor bench, but Cooper is a seasoned statewide candidate. | | 4. DOJ Meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell | Deputy AG Todd Blanche met with Ghislaine Maxwell today in Tallahassee. The meeting is part of a DOJ effort to uncover more Epstein-linked evidence. | Maxwell is serving 20 years for sex trafficking. Her lawyer confirmed she will "testify truthfully." She is also under subpoena to appear before the House Oversight Committee on August 11.
| DOJ says any new credible info will be heard. Public pressure for more Epstein disclosures is growing. | | 5. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Sued Over Interest Rates | Jerome Powell is facing a new lawsuit filed July 24, alleging he violated federal transparency laws by keeping interest rates high to undermine Trump's economy. | Inflation is at a 4-year low, but rates remain at a 20-year high. Trump & allies claim Powell's decisions are politically motivated. Powell: The Fed is waiting to see the inflation impact of Trump's tariffs.
| The lawsuit seeks to block next week's FOMC meeting. Legal experts say Powell is protected under the Federal Reserve Act and a recent SCOTUS ruling. | | Want More Like This? Subscribe to Quantus Insights for sharp, unfiltered analysis—free or paid. Paid members get early access to polling results, inside data, and exclusive content on our Substack publication. | | |
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