| | Quantus Thursday // July 2025 Edition | 1. Party ID Shift: GOP Now Leads National Affiliation
According to Pew Research: | | That's a net 11-point swing toward Republicans since 2021. | Why this matters:
Party ID margin is a strong predictor of House national popular vote (NPV) outcomes. Historical correlation: r = 0.82 in midterms. | Examples: | 2022 (R+1 ID) → R+3 in House NPV 2010 & 2014 (D+2 to D+3 ID) → GOP still won big due to turnout/indies 2006 & 2018 (D+6 ID) → Dems won +8 to +9 NPV and flipped the House
| Takeaway: An R+1 environment this early suggests a GOP-leaning baseline for 2026 but outcome depends on turnout, candidate quality, and independents. | | | 2. Trump's Trade Blitz: Japan, Indonesia, and More | Japan Deal (July 22, 2025) | Tariffs: Japanese autos now face 15% U.S. tariff (down from 27.5%) Investment: Japan to invest $550B in U.S. industries (energy, semis, pharma) Market Access: More U.S. rice, cars, ag exports to Japan Impact: Nikkei +3.5%. Japanese auto stocks soared. U.S. automakers not thrilled.
| Indonesia Deal | Tariffs: Cut to 19% (was 32%), 40% on Chinese-linked goods Purchases: $3.2B in U.S. aircraft $4.5B in U.S. ag (soybeans, wheat) $15B in energy (LNG, crude)
Impact: Counters Chinese influence, builds on Philippines deal (same 19% structure)
| Other Frameworks | Philippines: 19% on imports, zero tariffs for U.S. goods Vietnam: 20% on imports, 40% on transshipped goods UK, EU, China: Talks ongoing (China deadline: August 12)
| Context: All follow Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs (April 2025), aiming to re-shore manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. Business groups warn of higher consumer prices. | | 3. 2026 NC Senate Race: Whatley vs. Cooper Likely | RNC Chair Michael Whatley is preparing to run for Senate in North Carolina, backed by President Trump. Lara Trump passed on the race. | Expected matchup: | 🟥 Michael Whatley (R) — RNC Chair, Trump ally, ex-NC GOP Chair 🟦 Roy Cooper (D) — Former Governor, expected to announce soon
| Battle lines: Trump won NC three cycles in a row, but Dems see the seat as flippable. Whatley brings a deep donor bench, but Cooper is a seasoned statewide candidate. | | 4. DOJ Meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell | Deputy AG Todd Blanche met with Ghislaine Maxwell today in Tallahassee. The meeting is part of a DOJ effort to uncover more Epstein-linked evidence. | Maxwell is serving 20 years for sex trafficking. Her lawyer confirmed she will "testify truthfully." She is also under subpoena to appear before the House Oversight Committee on August 11.
| DOJ says any new credible info will be heard. Public pressure for more Epstein disclosures is growing. | | 5. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Sued Over Interest Rates | Jerome Powell is facing a new lawsuit filed July 24, alleging he violated federal transparency laws by keeping interest rates high to undermine Trump's economy. | Inflation is at a 4-year low, but rates remain at a 20-year high. Trump & allies claim Powell's decisions are politically motivated. Powell: The Fed is waiting to see the inflation impact of Trump's tariffs.
| The lawsuit seeks to block next week's FOMC meeting. Legal experts say Powell is protected under the Federal Reserve Act and a recent SCOTUS ruling. | | Want More Like This?
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