Welcome to this week's roundup of key political and economic developments. From shifting voter sentiment to Electoral College projections and a brewing Federal Reserve controversy, here's what you...
| | Quantus Friday Brief // August 2025 Edition | 1. Trump's Half-Nation Hold | Despite no majority approval, Trump maintains a locked-in base. | Quantus Insights (Aug 28):
🟢 Approve: 47.6%
🔴 Disapprove: 50.6%
⚪️ Unsure: 1.8%
Bottom line: Stable since April with firm support, but ceiling remains. |  | Quantus Insights @QuantusInsights |  |
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NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL
U.S. National Survey 🇺🇸 Trump Holds a Durable Half-Nation Coalition, But Remains Locked Out of Majority Approval Trump Job Approval
🟢 Approve: 47.6%
🔴 Disapprove: 50.6%
⚪️ Unsure: 1.8%
– Stabilized since April; base remains locked in, but no majority | |  | | | 4:29 PM • Aug 28, 2025 | | | | | | 103 Likes 14 Retweets | 15 Replies |
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| | 2. US Economy Snapshot: | GDP Growth (Q2 2025): Revised up to 3.5% — boosted by strong consumer spending and business investment. Initial Jobless Claims: 229,000 — still low. Continuing Claims: 1.954 million — slightly up. Unemployment: Trending around 4.2–4.3%. Slight softening expected. Fed Watch: Weakness in labor market may push a rate cut mid-September.
| Inflation Expectations (UMich Final – Aug):
📉 1-year: 4.8% (vs. exp. 5.0%)
📉 5-10 year: 3.5% (vs. exp. 3.9%) | Be sure to follow us on X for more analysis and election coverage @QuantusInsights (https://x.com/QuantusInsights) | | 3. House Race Shifts: Texas Turns Redder | District | Change |
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TX-9 | 🔵 Safe D → 🔴 Safe R | TX-32 | 🔵 Safe D → 🔴 Safe R | TX-35 | 🔵 Safe D → 🔴 Likely R | TX-34 | 🟡 Tossup → 🔴 Lean R | TX-28 | 🟡 Tossup → 🟡 Tossup |
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Where the congressional ballot currently stands.
| | | 4. Wages: Private Sector Overtakes Public | For the first time since 2022, private sector wages are growing faster: | 📈 Private Workers: +5.1%
📉 Government Workers: +4.8% | The chart shows the volatility of private wages post-2020, but as of now, they're clearly pulling ahead. This shift comes as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows no signs of tariff-driven pressure. | | | 5. What It All Means: | The economy's hotter than expected but not overheating. The Fed may blink soon as job strength softens slightly. Inflation expectations are cooling, giving policymakers more breathing room. Trump has a stable base but not a majority — yet. Private sector wage growth could signal stronger spending power ahead, even as the public sector levels off. House races in Texas Republicans add Republican Houses seats, with implications for control in 2026.
| Bottom line: The economy is running hotter than expected, with revised GDP growth at 3.5% and private sector wages now outpacing government pay for the first time since 2022—a signal of underlying labor market strength. But political and policy signals are diverging. Trump's approval remains frozen below majority levels, suggesting a ceiling even as his base holds firm. Meanwhile, a red shift is accelerating in Texas from redistricting, sends the House further right by time of midterm elections. The Fed is now caught between a resilient economy and signs of labor softening, making a rate cut in September increasingly likely. | | Want More Like This?
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