How the Iran war ends

February 19th, 2026 Unsubscribe Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. Today, we dive deep into nearly 200 active polymarkets on the increasingly likely U.S. war with Iran. Top News How it starts Traders are now highly confident that the U.S. and/ or Israel will strike Iran this year. How will the war start? Read more → ​ Quick Links Will Iran close its airspace by...? → US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28? → Offramp: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? → Middlegame Will the conflict stay contained in Iran? Or spread to neighboring states? Boots on the ground? Read more → ​ Quick Links Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? → Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? → Iran strike on Qatar? → Iran strike on Israel? → How it ends Will the Iranian regime survive? What comes next? Read more → ​ Quick Links Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? → U.S. recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? → Words of wisdom For your situational awareness, you can find all 195 active Iran polymarkets after the jump: Read more → ​ Breaking News Odds Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? View market → 54% +34% Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? View market → 41% +25% Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX's initial public offering? View market → 46% -21% See all Breaking → ​ New Listed Texas Senate Election Matchup 10h ago 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory 11h ago How long will Trump and JD Vance shake hands at the 2026 State of the Union address? 17h ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets 24H Volume Fed decision in March? $5.33M Next Prime Minister of the Netherlands $3.20M Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? $2.74M See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In Pacers vs. Wizards 12h 2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner 2d 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion 130d See all Top Sports → ​ Whale Moves "No" Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? $231.5K SwissMiss See Wallet → See all Whale Moves → Last Word Polymarket 🤝 Substack Starting today, Substack authors can natively integrate data from the world's largest prediction market. Read more → ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 64 Bleecker Street, 167 New York, NY 10012 U.S.